EXCHANGE
Kalshi surebets: with whom, on which markets and how long they last
Over the period September 6 – 29, 2026, the Dozor scanner found 116,217 surebets involving Kalshi: median life 4.0 s, 6.9% lasted over a minute, 62% were live. Kalshi most often diverges from Olimp (22,911 surebets), 1xBet (15,440), and Duel (12,432).
| Type | prediction market (contract exchange), no per-player limits, the constraint is order book depth, kalshi.com |
|---|---|
| Account currency | USD |
| Surebets in window | 116,217 (3.1% of all found) |
| Live / prematch | 72,307 / 43,547 (mode not recorded for 363) |
| Median lifetime | 4.0 s |
| Over a minute | 8,028 (6.9%) |
| Median peak ROI | 2.7% |
Who Kalshi forms surebets with
| Other book | Surebets | Share of Kalshi surebets |
|---|---|---|
| Olimp | 22,911 | 20% |
| 1xBet | 15,440 | 13% |
| Duel | 12,432 | 11% |
| BetBoom | 7,649 | 6.6% |
| Betcity | 5,851 | 5.0% |
| Leon | 5,324 | 4.6% |
| CSGOPositive | 5,133 | 4.4% |
| Thunderpick | 5,086 | 4.4% |
A discrepancy between two books means different line providers, different update speeds or, for exchanges, a price set by traders. The further apart the price sources, the more often surebets appear and the longer they last.
On which markets
| Market | Surebets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 113,977 | 98% |
| Total | 2,240 | 1.9% |
By game
| Game | Surebets |
|---|---|
| CS2 | 67,264 |
| League of Legends | 31,710 |
| Dota 2 | 11,152 |
| Valorant | 4,119 |
| Rainbow Six | 1,450 |
| Rocket League | 145 |
The game is recorded for surebets found after September 6, 2026; older records in the window lack it, so the per-game total is lower than the overall count.
How to use this
- The partners at the top of the table are the books worth keeping open next to Kalshi: that is where discrepancies show up most often.
- A median life of 4.0 s means you need your stakes ready in advance; the calculator does the maths, and in the scanner card it is already done for you.
- The share of surebets lasting over a minute (6.9%) is what a Telegram notification can still catch without the screen open.
- An exchange does not limit players, but the volume at the price you need is capped by the order book; the scanner has a minimum-depth filter. More on the page about surebets with prediction markets.
FAQ
Why are some well-known books missing from the Kalshi pairs? Either they share a feed (see the “Feed” row), or there were fewer surebets than the threshold in the window. The table is recalculated daily.
What is the median peak ROI? Each surebet records the highest ROI it reached during its life; the median is the value with half of surebets above it and half below. See the term ROI in the glossary.
Why are the numbers different from yesterday? The window is rolling, 30 days: tournaments, night hours and weekends change the picture. A snapshot for a specific date with the method is in the blog.
Data: Dozor surebet history for September 6 – 29, 2026, 3,711,297 records. The service is analytical: it finds and shows discrepancies, does not accept bets and does not guarantee profit. 18+.