PAIR
Surebets between Olimp and Polymarket
Over the period September 6 – 29, 2026, the Dozor scanner found 120,322 surebets between Olimp and Polymarket: median life 6.1 s, 4.8% lasted over a minute, median peak ROI 2.8%. Polymarket is an exchange: its price moves with traders’ orders rather than a bookmaker’s algorithm, so it lags behind Olimp after in-game events and the gaps last longer. The pair diverges most often on the “Winner” market (85% of its surebets), mostly in CS2; 22% were found live.
| Surebets in window | 120,322 |
|---|---|
| Live | 22% |
| Median lifetime | 6.1 s |
| Over a minute | 5,834 (4.8%) |
| Median peak ROI | 2.8% |
| Olimp | bookmaker, RUB, 883,673 surebets in the window overall — page |
| Polymarket | exchange, USD, 523,065 surebets in the window overall — page |
Markets where they diverge
| Market | Surebets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 102,210 | 85% |
| Handicap | 12,581 | 10% |
| Total | 4,908 | 4.1% |
| Total kills | 623 | 0.5% |
By game
| Game | Surebets |
|---|---|
| CS2 | 57,645 |
| Dota 2 | 32,350 |
| League of Legends | 23,778 |
| Valorant | 4,335 |
| Rainbow Six | 1,420 |
What to check before betting on this pair
- Both books’ settlement rules for the market: overtime, walkovers, how kills are counted. The same market name does not mean the same rules.
- The account currencies differ (RUB and USD): the exchange rate affects the ROI.
- The age of both prices in the scanner card: with a median life of 6.1 s, a surebet with a stale leg has most likely closed already.
Data: Dozor surebet history for September 6 – 29, 2026, 3,711,297 records; the method is in the article “How Long Does a Surebet Last?”. The service is analytical: it does not accept bets and does not guarantee profit. 18+.