PAIR
Surebets between Duel and Polymarket
Over the period October 11 – November 10, 2026, the Dozor scanner found 55,264 surebets between Duel and Polymarket: median life 2.0 s, 9.4% lasted over a minute, median peak ROI 2.4%. Polymarket is an exchange: its price moves with traders’ orders rather than a bookmaker’s algorithm, so it lags behind Duel after in-game events and the gaps last longer. The pair diverges most often on the “Winner” market (67% of its surebets), mostly in CS2; 79% were found live.
| Surebets in window | 55,264 |
|---|---|
| Live | 79% |
| Median lifetime | 2.0 s |
| Over a minute | 5,181 (9.4%) |
| Median peak ROI | 2.4% |
| Duel | bookmaker, USD, 726,869 surebets in the window overall — page |
| Polymarket | exchange, USD, 423,572 surebets in the window overall — page |
Markets where they diverge
| Market | Surebets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 36,842 | 67% |
| Handicap | 8,638 | 16% |
| Total | 6,804 | 12% |
| ultrakill | 1,298 | 2.3% |
| rampage | 925 | 1.7% |
By game
| Game | Surebets |
|---|---|
| CS2 | 31,178 |
| Dota 2 | 15,705 |
| Valorant | 4,591 |
| League of Legends | 3,647 |
| Overwatch | 116 |
What to check before betting on this pair
- Both books’ settlement rules for the market: overtime, walkovers, how kills are counted. The same market name does not mean the same rules.
- Both accounts use the same currency (USD), no conversion needed.
- The age of both prices in the scanner card: with a median life of 2.0 s, a surebet with a stale leg has most likely closed already.
More pairs with frequent arbs
Data: Dozor surebet history for October 11 – November 10, 2026, 4,694,674 records; the method is in the article “How Long Does a Surebet Last?”. The service is analytical: it does not accept bets and does not guarantee profit. 18+.