PAIR
Surebets between Duel and Polymarket
Over the period September 6 – 29, 2026, the Dozor scanner found 62,903 surebets between Duel and Polymarket: median life 6.1 s, 14% lasted over a minute, median peak ROI 1.9%. Polymarket is an exchange: its price moves with traders’ orders rather than a bookmaker’s algorithm, so it lags behind Duel after in-game events and the gaps last longer. The pair diverges most often on the “Winner” market (74% of its surebets), mostly in CS2; 67% were found live.
| Surebets in window | 62,903 |
|---|---|
| Live | 67% |
| Median lifetime | 6.1 s |
| Over a minute | 8,673 (14%) |
| Median peak ROI | 1.9% |
| Duel | bookmaker, USD, 704,924 surebets in the window overall — page |
| Polymarket | exchange, USD, 523,065 surebets in the window overall — page |
Markets where they diverge
| Market | Surebets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | 46,256 | 74% |
| Handicap | 8,607 | 14% |
| Total | 7,105 | 11% |
| Total kills | 935 | 1.5% |
By game
| Game | Surebets |
|---|---|
| CS2 | 41,096 |
| League of Legends | 9,359 |
| Dota 2 | 9,261 |
| Valorant | 3,015 |
| Rainbow Six | 32 |
What to check before betting on this pair
- Both books’ settlement rules for the market: overtime, walkovers, how kills are counted. The same market name does not mean the same rules.
- Both accounts use the same currency (USD), no conversion needed.
- The age of both prices in the scanner card: with a median life of 6.1 s, a surebet with a stale leg has most likely closed already.
Data: Dozor surebet history for September 6 – 29, 2026, 3,711,297 records; the method is in the article “How Long Does a Surebet Last?”. The service is analytical: it does not accept bets and does not guarantee profit. 18+.