How Long Do Surebets Last? 30 Days of Data

Half of all surebets last 2 seconds or less: the median lifetime is 2 seconds in live and 38 seconds in prematch. Over 30 days, from October 6 to November 5, 2026, the Dozor scanner recorded 4,829,879 surebet episodes in esports and prediction markets. Of these, 15.9% lasted over 10 seconds, 7.0% over 30 seconds and 3.9% over a minute.

The key practical number is how many surebets an hour last longer than you need to place two bets: over 10 seconds — about 1,060 an hour, over a minute — about 260. There were 1,397,673 distinct surebets in the window: one surebet can appear and disappear several times. Below is the breakdown by market, game, book, pair and hour of day.

How we measured

• Episode. A surebet in the data is a set of bets on one match, market and line at one set of books that appeared and disappeared. A flickering surebet produces several episodes, so there are fewer distinct surebets — combinations of "match, market, line, books": 1,397,673, or 3.5 episodes per surebet on average.
• A snapshot every 2 seconds. Lifetime runs from the first to the last snapshot that contained the surebet. "0 s" means the surebet appeared in a single snapshot.
• What is left out. Stale and frozen prices, and pairs of books from one vendor: they share a single line.
• Mode. Live or prematch is set by the match status when the surebet appeared.

The window is 30 days, exactly 720 hours. The full counting rules are in the methodology.

Distribution

More than half of the episodes don't reach 2 seconds, 84% don't reach 10. Live and prematch behave very differently:

Live accounts for 93% of episodes, but only 1.3% of them last over a minute; in prematch it is 40.8%. A detailed comparison of the two modes is in Live vs Prematch: Where Surebets Last Longer; the modes themselves are covered on the live surebets and prematch surebets pages.

How many surebets last over N seconds per hour

This is your real flow: if two bets take you 30 seconds, across all books and games you can catch about 470 surebets an hour, not 6,700. On your own set of books and games it is fewer; the scanner's filters show how many.

By market

Handicap, winner and total are equally short-lived: a 2-second median and 3–5% over a minute. Markets on kills and map objectives last longer: total kills — 18.6% over a minute, kills handicap — 21.2%, first Roshan — 41% with a 38-second median. Before betting such a surebet, check the market rules at both books — how kills are counted is covered in the article on Dota 2 arbitrage betting.

By game

CS2 accounts for 79% of episodes, but they are short-lived — 2.7% over a minute. In League of Legends one surebet in five lasts over a minute, in Overwatch almost half, but there are tens to hundreds of times fewer surebets there.

By book: longest and fastest

The tables cover international books with 50,000 episodes or more; bookmaker.xyz (51,871 episodes, 0.3% over a minute) is not included: Dozor stopped reading this book on October 29, 2026. Almost every book has a median of 2 seconds or less; the difference is in the tail: at GGBet one surebet in ten lasts over a minute, at 1xBet one in fifty. All three prediction markets — Polymarket, Predict.fun and Kalshi — are among the books with the longest-lived surebets.

By pair

The table covers international pairs with 20,000 episodes or more. The most frequent pair, 1xBet — Thunderpick, produces 11% of all episodes, but only 0.2% of them last over a minute. The longest-lived surebets are in pairs with Duel: with Thunderpick, more than a third last over a minute.

By hour and day of week

Most surebets appear between 13:00 and 17:00 UTC, about 11,000 episodes an hour; the fewest between 01:00 and 05:00 UTC, about 2,400. Long-lived surebets peak between 09:00 and 13:00 UTC, about 380 an hour. In the early hours there are fewer of them, but their share is higher: 7.5% versus 2.8% from 13:00 to 21:00 UTC.

Sunday has the fewest surebets — about 117,000 a day versus 157,000–174,000 on other days; Monday has the most long-lived ones, about 8,000 a day. A day here runs from 21:00 to 21:00 UTC. The window has 4 Mondays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays and 5 Wednesdays; Tuesday and Thursday have 4 full days plus a partial day at the window edges, so their averages are approximate.

ROI and lifetime

The higher the ROI, the less often a surebet lasts a minute: 6.6% below 1% versus 2.5–2.6% from 5% up. Why a surebet above 10% deserves a second check is covered in How to Calculate Arbitrage Bets.

What it means in practice

• Calculating after the first bet is too late. With a 2-second median, the stakes must be ready before you open the book.
• Your own lifetime threshold. The "Arb lives at least, s" filter hides surebets that appeared less than N seconds ago, so flickering ones don't distract you.
• Price freshness. Before betting, check the price age at both books: an old price is the first candidate to change.
• Where you get more time. Prematch, League of Legends, Overwatch, markets on kills and map objectives: there, 19% to 47% of surebets last over a minute.
• Alerts. Long-lived surebets arrive at any hour; a sound and a browser notification reach you from a background tab (on Free, only for surebets under 1%).

FAQ

Why do so many surebets last under 2 seconds?

Two books update their prices at different moments in live: one has already moved its line after an in-game event, the other has not yet. A moment later the second catches up and the surebet closes.

How many surebets can you actually catch?

It depends on how many seconds two bets take you: at 10 seconds, about 1,060 an hour across all books; at a minute, about 260. On your own books and games, fewer.

Do prematch surebets last longer?

Yes: the median is 38 seconds versus 2 in live, and 40.8% of prematch surebets last over a minute. But there are 14 times fewer of them.

How was lifetime measured?

The scanner saves a snapshot of surebets every 2 seconds. Lifetime is the time between the first and the last snapshot containing the surebet; a surebet in a single snapshot gets 0 seconds.

Why are there more episodes than distinct surebets?

The same surebet can flicker: disappear for one snapshot and come back. Each return is a separate episode, so there are 3.5 times more episodes than distinct surebets.