Esports Arbitrage Betting: Where and Why Bookmakers Disagree

CS2 produces the most esports surebets — 79% of episodes — but they last longest in League of Legends and Overwatch: there, one surebet in five and almost one in two last over a minute. Over 30 days, from October 6 to November 5, 2026, the Dozor scanner recorded 4,829,879 surebet episodes (1,397,673 distinct surebets); the median lifetime in every major game is 2 seconds or less, except LoL.

Below: game shares, the main markets of each game, the books and pairs whose prices diverge most often, and what breaks an esports surebet. What the scanner itself does is on the esports surebet scanner page.

Why esports produce surebets

• Live with frequent events. A round in CS2 or Valorant, a kill in Dota 2 — every event moves the line, and books update it at different speeds. In those seconds a surebet opens: 93% of episodes in the data are live, with a median lifetime of 2 seconds.
• Many markets per match. Besides the winner, there are handicaps and totals on maps, rounds and kills, plus map objectives. Each market is another chance to diverge.
• Different line providers. Crypto sportsbooks, retail books and prediction markets take prices from different sources. Brands of one provider share a single line and give no surebets with each other — that is a feed group: Duel, BC.Game, Roobet, CSGOEmpire and Reels run on the BetBy line, Gamdom and Shuffle on Oddin.

Shares by game

What it means: CS2 and Valorant give volume, but their surebets are a matter of seconds. LoL, Rainbow Six and Overwatch give time: in LoL one surebet in five lasts over a minute, in Overwatch almost half. For manual betting these are different modes: in CS2 the stakes must be ready before you open the card, in LoL there is time to check the rules.

Markets by game

In CS2, Dota 2 and Valorant the three main markets — handicap, winner and total — are equally short-lived. In League of Legends the second-largest market is total kills, and almost a third of its surebets last over a minute. In Dota 2, markets on kills and objectives come after the top three: the kills handicap has 18,554 episodes with 21.5% over a minute, first Roshan 17,885 with 41.0%. Total rounds in CS2 and Valorant is a story of its own with overtime rules — see the article on CS2 surebets.

Between whom prices diverge

The tables cover international books and pairs. A surebet involves two or more books, so the book shares add up to more than 100%. 1xBet takes part in 35% of episodes over 30 days; over the full days of the window its share stays between 24% and 41% (days run from 21:00 to 21:00 UTC; a query to the same history over the same window). One pair — 1xBet and Thunderpick — produces 11% of all episodes, but only 0.2% of them last over a minute: a frequent surebet is not necessarily a convenient one. Pairs within one feed group are not in the tables and cannot be: the scanner doesn't count them. Which crypto sportsbooks share a feed, and what their terms say about arbitrage, is in crypto sportsbook arbitrage.

What breaks an esports surebet

• Two books settle differently. Take a team withdrawing. Pinnacle's CS2 rules: "If a team retires, receives a win by admin decision, or is disqualified before all scheduled rounds of a Map are played, all bets on that Map will be voided." Polymarket: if the match has started and one team wins through the opponent's forfeit or disqualification, the market settles for the winner; if it happens before the start, 50-50. The same event gives a refund on one leg and a win or a loss on the other.
• Overtime. Pinnacle counts overtime and other tiebreakers toward the result; another book may settle total rounds without it — check. More in the article on CS2 surebets.
• Kills. Books spell out differently which deaths count as kills: in Dota 2, Pinnacle does not count denies, suicides, or deaths from neutral creeps and Roshan. Details in the article on Dota 2 surebets.
• Seconds. The median lifetime is 2 seconds: a surebet with a price that hasn't updated for a while has most likely already closed. How long surebets last by market and book is in How Long Do Surebets Last?

Where to start

Don't start with CS2 in live; start with markets that give you time: total kills in LoL, the kills handicap and objectives in Dota 2, prematch. The esports surebet scanner page shows which games and markets the scanner reads and what the surebet card shows; stakes are in the calculator.

FAQ

Which game produces the most surebets?

CS2: 79% of episodes over 30 days.

Where do surebets last longest?

In Overwatch (median 44 seconds, 46.6% over a minute), League of Legends and King of Glory (19.4% over a minute). By market — total kills in LoL and map objectives in Dota 2.

Why does 1xBet have so many surebets?

This is a measurement, not a rating of the book: 1xBet takes part in 35% of episodes, including the most frequent pair with Thunderpick. Of the surebets with 1xBet, 2.0% last over a minute.

Do Duel and BC.Game produce surebets with each other?

No: they share one line, it is one feed group. The same goes for Roobet, CSGOEmpire and Reels.

Sources

Checked on November 5, 2026.

• Pinnacle betting rules, Esports section: overtime, a team withdrawing in CS2, what counts as a kill in Dota 2.
• Polymarket "Map Handicap" market rules (CS2, November 5, 2026): forfeit and disqualification before and after the start of the match.
• Dozor: data — methodology; feed groups — by the line providers of the books in Dozor.